Following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026—which killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei—the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping on March 4. Tanker traffic dropped to effectively zero, cutting off roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and 20% of global LNG trade. The closure is described as “insurance-driven”: underwriters will not cover vessels transiting the strait, making it commercially impassable even without a physical blockade. Over 150 ships anchored outside the strait to wait out the crisis. Gulf states have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. The IEA’s March Oil Market Report called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The Month the Strait Closed
March 2026 has delivered the most severe energy supply shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz—choking off 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a fifth of all LNG trade. Brent crude breached $100 for the first time in four years, peaking above $126. Iranian drones struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, shutting down the world’s largest LNG export facility. Shell declared force majeure. Asian and European gas prices surged 40–50%. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry kept building: Golden Pass LNG nears first production, Guyana approaches 1 million barrels per day, and all five halted US offshore wind farms resumed construction. Here is everything that matters.
Brent Crude
$103.14/bbl
Peaked at $126/bbl on Mar 9
WTI Crude
$98.71/bbl
+35.6% weekly gain (Mar 9)
LNG Spot (Asia JKM)
~$20/MMBtu
Spiked to mid-$20s on Mar 3
LNG Spot (Europe TTF)
$18.1/MMBtu
+63% from late February
Baker Hughes Rig Count (US)
551
Oil: 411 | Gas: 132 | Misc: 8
Offshore EPC Awards 2026F
$59B
+28% YoY (Westwood forecast)
Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed — Largest Supply Disruption in History
BreakingQatar Shuts Ras Laffan After Iranian Drone Strike — Shell Declares Force Majeure
BreakingOn March 2, two Iranian drones struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, prompting QatarEnergy to cease all LNG production. Ras Laffan is the world’s largest LNG export complex, and the shutdown removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market overnight. Benchmark European gas prices (TTF) surged nearly 50%, while Asian JKM prices jumped 39%. Shell subsequently declared force majeure on its Qatari LNG contracts. QatarEnergy’s CEO stated production cannot restart until the conflict ends completely, after which it would take weeks to bring facilities back online. The 32 MTPA North Field East expansion, the world’s largest capacity addition under construction, now faces indefinite delay.
Brent Blasts Past $100 — WTI Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in History
MarketsBrent crude surpassed $100/bbl on March 8 for the first time since 2022, peaking at $126/bbl following the Strait of Hormuz blockade. WTI posted its largest weekly gain in history at 35.6% during the week ending March 9. As of March 13, Brent settled at $103.14 and WTI at $98.71, both still elevated. The EIA forecasts Brent will remain above $95/bbl through May before falling below $80/bbl in Q3 as alternative supply routes are established and strategic reserves are released. OPEC+ agreed on March 1 to begin a modest production increase of 206,000 b/d starting April, though the Gulf production cuts from the Hormuz crisis dwarf any planned increases.
Offshore EPC Awards Forecast at $59 Billion — FPS Market Surges
ContractWestwood forecasts offshore oil and gas EPC contract awards to reach $59 billion in 2026, a 28% year-over-year increase. The floating production systems (FPS) market alone is expected to account for $28 billion (48% of total), with 18 FPS units forecast to be awarded including three FLNG units. Approximately 290 subsea tree units are expected to be ordered. Key FPS contracts anticipated this year include Petrobras’s SEAP II unit, Eni’s Geng North FPSO (Indonesia), ExxonMobil’s Longtail development (Guyana), and TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO (Namibia). The subsea EPC market is expected to total $17 billion, with tiebacks accounting for 65% of awards through 2028.
Golden Pass LNG Train 1 Nears First Production in Texas
LNGGolden Pass LNG in Sabine Pass, Texas, is accelerating commissioning of Train 1, with first LNG production expected in the back half of Q1 or early Q2 2026. The facility received its first significant draw of feed gas and gained crucial FERC approval for ramp-up. Trains 2 and 3 are slated to enter service later in 2026, bringing total feedgas demand to 2.4 Bcf/d. Combined with Plaquemines LNG’s ongoing ramp-up, US LNG export capacity is expected to grow from 17 Bcf/d to over 19 Bcf/d by year-end—a critical expansion as the Hormuz crisis reshuffles global LNG supply routes.
All Five Halted US Offshore Wind Farms Resume Construction
Offshore WindAll five US offshore wind farms that received stop-work orders from the government have been cleared to resume construction. Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind is now over 70% complete with turbines expected to begin feeding the grid by late March. Revolution Wind (Rhode Island/Connecticut) is 80% complete and on track for full operation in 2026, powering 350,000 homes. A specialized installation vessel from Singapore is en route to build the 810 MW Empire Wind project off New York. The construction pause cost Dominion more than $200 million in delays.
Offshore & Pipelines
The offshore sector enters 2026 with a record contract pipeline: $59 billion in EPC awards forecast, 18 FPS units expected, and 290 subsea trees on order. Saipem landed a $500M Aramco pipeline deal, Subsea7 secured a Gulf of Mexico tieback worth up to $300M, and Guyana is on the cusp of the 1 million b/d milestone. But the Strait of Hormuz crisis has thrown new uncertainty into Gulf-based developments while simultaneously making non-OPEC deepwater barrels more valuable than ever.
Major Contracts & Awards
Saipem Wins $500M Aramco Contract for Safaniya Offshore Pipeline
ContractSaipem was awarded a new offshore EPCI contract from Saudi Aramco valued at approximately $500 million for a 48-inch trunkline in the Safaniya oil field, the world’s largest offshore oil field, located in the Persian Gulf off Saudi Arabia. The project scope covers engineering, procurement, construction, and installation. However, the Strait of Hormuz crisis raises questions about construction timelines in the Gulf region, as insurance coverage for vessels operating near the strait has become prohibitively expensive or unavailable.
Subsea7 Secures Up to $300M Gulf of Mexico Tieback
ContractSubsea7 was awarded a substantial contract by Beacon Offshore Energy for a subsea tieback development in the US Gulf of Mexico, valued between $150 million and $300 million. The award aligns with the broader subsea tieback market, where $17 billion in EPC spend is anticipated in 2026, and tiebacks account for 65% of all low- to medium-risk subsea awards through 2028. Additional tieback projects to watch include Equinor’s Troll Phase 3 Stage 3, Johan Castberg expansion, and Heidrun expansion in Norway.
Kuwait Negotiates $7B Pipeline Stake Sale
DealKuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) is in early-stage negotiations with a global consortium of investors to sell a stake in its crude oil pipeline network, in a deal valued at approximately $7 billion. The transaction would represent one of the largest infrastructure divestments by a Gulf state oil company. The timing is complicated by the Hormuz crisis, which has forced Kuwait to cut production alongside other Gulf producers.
FPSO & Floating Production
18 FPS Units Expected in 2026 — FPSO Market Shifts to Ultra-Deepwater
FPSOWestwood forecasts 18 floating production system units to be awarded in 2026 (including three FLNG units), worth a combined $28 billion. More than 50% of new FPSO contracts now target water depths beyond 1,500 meters, reflecting a decisive shift toward ultra-deepwater. Key awards expected this year include Petrobras’s SEAP II (negotiations advanced with SBM Offshore), Eni’s Geng North FPSO in Indonesia, ExxonMobil’s Longtail development in Guyana, Azule Energy’s PAJ FPSO, and TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO offshore Namibia. The global FPSO market is estimated at $4.93 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $7.52 billion by 2035.
ExxonMobil Completes FPSO ONE GUYANA Purchase — Guyana Nears 1M b/d
FPSOExxonMobil Guyana Ltd completed its purchase of the FPSO ONE GUYANA from SBM Offshore on February 4, 2026. Production offshore Guyana averaged 915,000 b/d in January 2026, driven by the ramp-up of the Yellowtail project. The EIA forecasts Guyana’s crude oil production growth to average 140,000 b/d in 2026, with the start-up of the Uaru project expected to push production past 1.0 million b/d by 2027. Guyana, alongside Brazil and Argentina, is driving the bulk of non-OPEC crude growth—barrels that are now even more strategically valuable given the Gulf supply disruptions.
Pipelines Overview
Major Offshore Pipelines Commencing in 2026
| Project | Region | Length | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| QatarEnergy North Field East System | Qatar (Persian Gulf) | ~500 km | Construction (delayed by conflict) |
| Aramco Safaniya 48" Trunkline | Saudi Arabia (Persian Gulf) | TBD | Awarded to Saipem ($500M) |
| Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline | Algeria – Niger | ~4,128 km | Construction resumed Feb 2026 |
| Darwin LNG Pipeline | Australia (Timor Sea) | ~500 km | Expected at capacity in 2026 |
Delfin LNG Pipeline Explodes in Louisiana — Operator Severely Injured
IncidentOn February 3, a gas pipeline owned by Delfin LNG exploded near Holly Beach and Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, causing a fire 50 to 80 feet wide that burned for several hours. The blast on the 28-mile pipeline severely injured an operator on site. The incident cast doubt on the viability of the Delfin FLNG project, which was already facing headwinds from permitting challenges and financing uncertainty. Environmental groups pointed to the explosion as evidence of the dangers of rapid fossil fuel infrastructure expansion.
LNG & Terminals
The LNG market is experiencing its most turbulent month in decades. Qatar’s Ras Laffan shutdown removed roughly 77 MTPA of liquefaction capacity from the market. Asian JKM prices spiked to the mid-$20s/MMBtu—the highest in over three years—while European TTF surged to $18.5/MMBtu. The crisis has amplified the strategic importance of non-Gulf LNG supply: US export capacity is expanding toward 20 Bcf/d, Germany’s onshore terminals are progressing, and new FLNG concepts are gaining traction. Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate through 2026–2030, with 325 bcm/yr of new capacity expected online.
The Hormuz Crisis & LNG Supply
20% of Global LNG Trade Blocked — Prices Surge to 3-Year Highs
CrisisThe effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 20% of global LNG trade volumes. Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, was already offline from the Ras Laffan drone strike when the strait closure compounded the disruption. Asian LNG spot prices (JKM, April delivery) surged from the high teens to the low-to-mid $20s/MMBtu in the first week of March, marking the highest level in over three years. European TTF jumped from $11.1/MMBtu to $18.5/MMBtu over the same period. Buyers in Asia are now competing aggressively for non-Qatari cargoes, with May-delivery JKM futures at $745 (CME data). The crisis has also disrupted LNG flows from the UAE and Oman, further tightening the market.
US LNG Expansion
Golden Pass LNG Nears First Production — FERC Clears Ramp-Up
LNGThe Golden Pass LNG facility in Sabine Pass, Texas, is accelerating commissioning of Train 1, with first LNG production expected in Q1–Q2 2026. The project received its first significant draw of feed gas and gained crucial FERC approval to begin key testing. The $10 billion+ facility, a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%), will bring 2.4 Bcf/d of feed gas demand once all three trains are operational later this year. QatarEnergy’s ownership stake adds an ironic dimension: the company’s Gulf production is offline, but its US investment is about to start flowing.
Plaquemines LNG Ramping Up — US Export Capacity Heading to 20 Bcf/d
LNGVenture Global’s Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana, which shipped its first cargo in December 2024, continues ramping up Phase 1 toward full capacity. The terminal has been contributing to persistent spot and forward basis premiums at key Southeast US gas hubs, indicating strong operational activity. Combined with Golden Pass, US LNG export capacity is on track to increase from about 17 Bcf/d at the end of 2025 to over 19 Bcf/d by year-end 2026. By end-2026, US LNG output is expected to peak at about 20 Bcf/d—making the US the world’s largest LNG exporter by a widening margin.
European & Global Terminals
Germany’s Onshore LNG Build-Out: Brunsbüttel and Stade Progress
TerminalGermany’s first permanent onshore LNG import terminals are advancing. The Brunsbüttel LNG Terminal, being built by CS Gas North with an annual capacity of at least 8 bcm (expandable to 10 bcm), is expected to be operational in 2026. A floating FSRU is serving as a forerunner while the onshore facility completes construction. The Stade terminal, using the Energos Force FSRU (174,000 m³ tank capacity, up to 4.7 bcm/yr grid feed-in), is now expected to begin operations no earlier than Q2 2026 after delays. Both terminals are critical components of Germany’s strategy to end dependence on Russian pipeline gas.
Taiwan’s Taichung LNG Phase 3 & Mexico’s Fast LNG Lakach
TerminalTaiwan’s Taichung LNG Terminal Phase 3 expansion is expected to be commissioned in 2026, adding two new LNG tanks and associated regasification facilities to bolster the island’s energy security. Meanwhile, the Fast LNG Lakach unit will be installed offshore Veracruz, Mexico, at the nearby Lakach natural gas field, with first LNG exports targeted for 2026. A new FSRU for Excelerate Energy (Hull 3407), being built by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries with 174,000 m³ capacity, is expected to be delivered in June 2026.
LNG Capacity Additions — 2025–2030
| Project | Country | Capacity (MTPA) | Expected Online | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Field East | Qatar | 32 | 2026 (delayed) | Shut down — conflict |
| Golden Pass LNG (Trains 1–3) | USA (Texas) | ~18 | 2026 | Train 1 commissioning |
| Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 | USA (Louisiana) | ~13.3 | Ramping up | First cargo Dec 2024 |
| Brunsbüttel LNG Terminal | Germany | ~6 | 2026 | Under construction |
| Stade FSRU Terminal | Germany | ~3.5 | Q2 2026 | Delayed |
| Taichung Phase 3 | Taiwan | TBD | 2026 | Under construction |
| Fast LNG Lakach | Mexico | TBD | 2026 | Installation phase |
Drilling & E&P
The US rig count holds steady at 551, with oil rigs ticking up slightly even as gas rigs drift lower. Ultra-deepwater exploration dominates the 2026 outlook, with Africa and South America leading global high-impact drilling. Equinor delivered two finds in the Norwegian North Sea, Eni struck gas in Southeast Asia’s Kutei Basin, and Guyana’s production sprints toward 1 million barrels per day. The Hormuz crisis is expected to accelerate investment in non-OPEC deepwater provinces as operators and governments seek to de-risk supply from the Persian Gulf.
Rig Count & Activity
Baker Hughes US Rig Count (Week of March 6, 2026)
Total US Rigs
551
+1 week-over-week
Oil Rigs
411
+4 WoW (75% of total)
Gas Rigs
132
-2 WoW (24% of total)
The North America rig count stood at 756 in March, down 8 rigs week-over-week. The oil-weighted US rig count reflects operators responding to elevated crude prices, while gas rigs edge lower amid continued warm-weather-related demand softness heading into shoulder season.
Exploration Discoveries
Equinor Strikes Twice in the Norwegian North Sea
DiscoveryEquinor reported two hydrocarbon discoveries in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea. The Byrding C discovery is estimated to contain 4–8 million barrels of recoverable oil, while the Frida Kahlo discovery is estimated at 5–9 million barrels of oil equivalent (gas and condensate). Both discoveries can be developed as tiebacks to existing infrastructure, keeping development costs manageable. Norway continues to be a prolific basin for incremental discoveries that extend the life of mature offshore infrastructure.
Eni Hits Major Gas Discovery in Indonesia’s Kutei Basin
DiscoveryEni revealed a significant gas discovery at the Konta-1 exploration well in the Kutei Basin, offshore East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Initial estimates indicate 600 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas initially in place, with potential upside beyond 1 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The discovery strengthens Southeast Asia’s gas supply position at a time when the region is scrambling for alternatives to Qatari LNG. Indonesia’s proximity to key Asian LNG buyers makes the discovery strategically significant.
2026 Exploration Hotspots
High-Impact Exploration Wells by Region
| Region | Wells Planned | Key Prospects | Operators |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 18 | Orange Basin (Namibia, 4 wells), Walvis Basin frontier (Gemsbock) | TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron |
| South America | 16 | Guyana deepwater, Brazil pre-salt, Suriname | ExxonMobil, Petrobras, TotalEnergies |
| Asia-Pacific | ~10 | Mailu (Papua New Guinea), Jampuk & Langka (Malaysia), Kutei Basin (Indonesia) | Eni, Santos, Petronas |
| Europe | ~8 | Norwegian North Sea tiebacks, UK West of Shetland | Equinor, BP, Shell |
Ultra-deepwater prospects dominate the 2026 outlook, representing about 60% of planned high-impact wells globally. Africa is expected to remain the most active region for frontier exploration drilling.
Production Milestones
Guyana Production Hits 915,000 b/d — 1 Million b/d in Sight
ProductionOil production offshore Guyana averaged 915,000 barrels per day in January 2026, driven by the ramp-up of the Yellowtail project. The start-up of the Uaru project later in 2026 will add another 250,000 b/d, pushing Guyana past 1.0 million b/d by 2027. ExxonMobil, the primary operator alongside Hess and CNOOC, completed its purchase of the FPSO ONE GUYANA from SBM Offshore on February 4. The EIA has identified Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina as the three countries driving non-OPEC crude oil growth in 2026—a trend now accelerated by the Gulf supply disruptions.
Petrobras FPSO P-78 Achieves First Oil in Brazil
ProductionPetrobras’s FPSO P-78 achieved first oil in January 2026, adding to Brazil’s pre-salt production capacity. Brazil remains the largest non-OPEC deepwater producer, and the EIA expects the country’s crude oil output to continue growing through 2026. Petrobras is expected to sanction at least two additional FPSO units in 2026, with advanced negotiations underway with SBM Offshore for the SEAP II unit.
FID Tracker
| Project | Operator | Region | Est. Capex | FID Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leviathan Gas Expansion | Chevron | Israel (offshore) | TBD | January 2026 |
| SARB Deep Gas Development | ADNOC | Abu Dhabi (offshore) | TBD | January 2026 |
| Hammerhead Development | ExxonMobil | Guyana (offshore) | $6.8B | Late 2025 |
Tariff-driven inflation and financing uncertainty could stall additional FIDs in 2026, with Westwood estimating more than $50 billion in greenfield projects potentially deferred. However, the Hormuz crisis may accelerate sanctioning of non-Gulf developments as energy security concerns override economic caution.
Offshore Rig Market
Softening Demand Puts Brakes on Offshore Day Rates
MarketDespite the broader supply shock, the offshore drilling rig market was already facing headwinds entering 2026. SPE’s Journal of Petroleum Technology reports that softening demand is putting the brakes on day rates, with operators becoming more cautious about committing to long-term rig contracts amid trade uncertainty and a weak macro outlook. The four-to-five-year lag between FID and first production means that new exploration commitments made today will not deliver barrels until 2030 or later—too late to address the current supply gap but potentially critical for long-term energy security.
Policy & Energy Transition
The Hormuz crisis has thrust energy security back to the top of every government’s agenda, complicating the transition narrative. Hydrogen is at a crossroads: 2 MTPA of low-carbon hydrogen capacity is poised for FID in 2026, double last year, but China is running away with green hydrogen deployment. Carbon capture continues its slow build-out with ExxonMobil planning a pilot at its Rotterdam complex. Meanwhile, all five halted US offshore wind farms are back under construction, and OPEC+ is navigating a world where the largest supply disruption in history may force a fundamental rethink of production strategy.
Energy Security & Geopolitics
OPEC+ Navigates the Hormuz Crisis — Agrees to April Output Increase
OPEC+Eight OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—had maintained production cuts through Q1 2026, keeping 2.2 million b/d of voluntary adjustments in place. On March 1, the group agreed to begin a modest production increase of 206,000 b/d starting April 2026, citing low estimated inventories. However, the decision was rapidly overtaken by events: the Strait of Hormuz closure has forced Gulf producers to cut at least 10 mb/d involuntarily, dwarfing any planned increases. The IEA’s March report called for coordinated strategic reserve releases from OECD nations. The Saudi-UAE relationship has also come under strain, with disputes over production allocation adding complexity to the group’s response.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen at a Crossroads: 2 MTPA Poised for FID, China Leads
Transition2026 may be a make-or-break year for the low-carbon hydrogen industry. Approximately 2 MTPA of capacity is poised for final investment decision this year, double the amount from 2025. The publication of the EU’s Low-Carbon Fuels Delegated Act in November 2025 provided long-awaited regulatory clarity for non-RFNBO hydrogen (including blue hydrogen), unlocking projects that had been waiting for policy certainty. China’s developers FID’d over 70% of global green hydrogen capacity last year, defying the negative sentiment elsewhere and building a commanding lead in electrolyzer deployment and green hydrogen production. Wood Mackenzie identifies hydrogen as one of five themes shaping the energy world in 2026.
Carbon Capture & Storage
ExxonMobil Plans 2026 Carbon Capture Pilot at Rotterdam
CCSThe pipeline of carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) projects continues to build globally. Laboratory testing conducted with ExxonMobil has shown carbon capture rates above 90%, and a pilot project is planned for 2026 at ExxonMobil’s Rotterdam manufacturing complex to test the system under real operating conditions. The broader CCUS market is accelerating, with interest in blue hydrogen integration growing as companies seek to decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial processes. Multiple industry conferences scheduled for 2026 reflect the growing momentum, including the Carbon Capture Technology World Expo and Wood Mackenzie’s CCUS Conference.
Offshore Wind & Renewables
US Offshore Wind: $200M Delay Cost, but All Projects Back on Track
Offshore WindAll five US offshore wind farms that had received stop-work orders were cleared to resume construction in February 2026. The pause cost Dominion Energy more than $200 million on its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project alone, which is now over 70% complete and expects turbines to begin feeding the grid by late March. Revolution Wind is 80% complete and on track for 2026 operation, powering 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut. A first-of-its-kind specialized installation vessel is en route from Singapore to build the 810 MW Empire Wind project off New York. The construction resumption represents a significant policy reversal and reaffirms the role of offshore wind in the US energy mix.
Energy Transition Investment
Five Themes Shaping the Energy World in 2026
OutlookWood Mackenzie identifies five themes shaping the energy world in 2026: (1) the geopolitical reshuffling of energy trade routes away from the Persian Gulf, (2) the hydrogen industry’s FID wave, (3) accelerating CCUS deployment, (4) the US becoming the world’s dominant LNG exporter, and (5) the tension between energy transition investment and energy security spending. BloombergNEF’s latest data shows global energy transition investment continues to grow, though the pace of acceleration is slowing as capital competes with security-driven fossil fuel spending. The Hormuz crisis has intensified the “energy trilemma”—balancing security, affordability, and sustainability—with security clearly winning in the near term.
30-Day Timeline
A chronological view of the major energy events from mid-February to mid-March 2026. The Hormuz crisis dominates the second half of the period, but the industry continued to make progress on long-term projects throughout.
February 3
Delfin LNG pipeline explodes near Holly Beach, Louisiana. Fire burns 50–80 feet wide for several hours; one operator severely injured.
February 4
ExxonMobil Guyana completes purchase of FPSO ONE GUYANA from SBM Offshore.
Early February
All five halted US offshore wind farms cleared to resume construction after government reverses stop-work orders.
February
Algeria and Niger resume Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline construction as bilateral relations thaw.
February
Saipem wins $500M Aramco contract for 48-inch offshore trunkline in the Safaniya oil field, Saudi Arabia.
February 24
Dominion Energy reveals $200M+ cost from the pause on its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, now 70% complete.
February 28
US and Israel launch strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones. Oil prices surge immediately.
March 1
OPEC+ agrees to begin modest output increase of 206,000 b/d starting April. The decision is overtaken by the Gulf crisis within days.
March 2
Iranian drones strike Qatar’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities. QatarEnergy ceases all LNG production. Gas prices surge 40–50% globally.
March 3
JKM spikes to mid-$20s/MMBtu, the highest in three years. TTF surges to $18.5/MMBtu. European and Asian buyers scramble for non-Qatari cargoes.
March 4
IRGC declares the Strait of Hormuz “closed” to commercial shipping. Tanker traffic drops to near zero. Over 150 ships anchor outside the strait.
March 6
Baker Hughes US rig count: 551 (Oil: 411, Gas: 132, Misc: 8). North America total: 756, down 8 WoW.
March 7
Empire Wind installation vessel departs Singapore for New York to build the 810 MW offshore wind project.
March 8–9
Brent crude surpasses $100/bbl for the first time since 2022, peaking at $126/bbl. WTI posts largest weekly gain in history (+35.6%).
March 11
Shell declares force majeure on LNG contracts from Qatar. Iran’s IRGC vows “not a litre of oil” will pass through Hormuz. CNBC reports closure could be “tipping point for global economy.”
March 13
Oil closes above $100 for second consecutive day. Brent settles at $103.14/bbl; WTI at $98.71/bbl. US Congress receives classified report on the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz.
March 14
IEA March Oil Market Report describes the Hormuz disruption as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. Gulf production cut by at least 10 mb/d.